One of the top Democratic primaries in Maryland this year is unfolding in Montgomery County, where former state Del. Cheryl Kagan is trying to take out state Sen. Jennie Forehand.

The grudge match between former allies — Kagan spent eight years in Annapolis and Forehand has been there for 32 years, half of that time in the Senate — probably merits a column of its own soon. But for now, suffice it to say that if Kagan wins, part of the reason will be because she has been campaigning for so long. Kagan put out the word that she was running at the end of 2008, and has methodically built a strong campaign — stumping the Rockville-Gaithersburg district full time, raising money aggressively, lining up support, and building a rationale for sending a well-liked incumbent home.

But as you look around the state, pondering potentially competitive races, the wonder is that more possible challengers aren’t following the Kagan model. Sure, we’ve been able to anticipate plenty of good races, but many have been slow to form. An obvious exception is in the 1st Congressional district, where state Sen. Andy Harris (R) essentially never stopped running after losing narrowly to now-Rep. Frank Kratovil (D) in 2008.

But the behavior of other challengers has been puzzling. Del. Chris Shank may oust state Sen. Don Munson in the Republican primary in Western Maryland this September on sheer energy alone — but his fundraising performance to date, like Munson’s, hasn’t been much to boast about.

In Howard County, a potential battleground, former Deputy Transportation Secretary Trent Kittleman (R) looked like a strong challenger to County Executive Ken Ulman (D) on paper. But she’s raised $11,000, while he’s taken in close to $1 million, and that race, increasingly, appears to be a nonstarter.

And in the 4th Congressional district, Del. Herman Taylor has been telling everyone for months that he is going to challenge Rep. Donna Edwards in the Democratic primary. Show us the money, Herman! Has anyone even seen this guy on the stump?

And then there are the high-stakes races that haven’t even formed yet. The obvious: Will former Gov. Bob Ehrlich (R) try to get his old job back? Will ex-Prince George’s County Executive Wayne Curry take on Gov. Martin O’Malley in the Democratic primary?

What about former Montgomery County Executive Doug Duncan (D)? Insiders say he is talking to former advisers about a possible primary bid against his successor, Ike Leggett (D). Duncan has $324,000 in his campaign account after his aborted gubernatorial bid in 2006. Leggett has $401,000. That’s a race that would be great to watch — and would make many Montgomery County Democrats very unhappy, because Duncan and Leggett have a lot of the same political friends.

As with Ehrlich, Curry and Duncan, we also have to wonder about former Anne Arundel County Executive Janet Owens (D). Is she going to attempt a political comeback? Businesswoman Joanna Conti (D), a relatively recent arrival to Anne Arundel County — we remember well her noble but doomed attempt to rid the world of former Congressman Tom Tancredo (R) in Colorado six years ago — is already running to knock off troubled County Executive John Leopold (R). But Owens would probably be the favorite for the Democratic nomination if she ran.

At last count, several delegates — including Saqib Ali (D), Joanne Benson (D), Aisha Braveboy (D), Roger Manno (D) and Victor Ramirez (D) — are still talking openly of taking on the state Senators in their districts. Are any of them going to pull the trigger?

And are Republicans going to post a decent candidate for Baltimore County executive, a race they could win?

Political calculations are a tricky thing, and a million factors go into deciding whether — or when — to launch a campaign. As Republicans wonder what Ehrlich is going to do, they see the sands seeping out of the hourglass, and it would certainly be a major blow to them if he didn’t run — particularly after Larry Hogan folded his tent on Monday. But Ehrlich didn’t announce his 2002 bid until late March, and while he was taking steps to build a campaign, no one knew for sure whether he was running until he said he was — and Republicans were sweating then, too. That worked out OK for them.

The legislative session doesn’t end until April 12. State elected officials are barred by law from raising money while the session is taking place, so many races are effectively frozen until then (though Harris is still able to collect cash for his Congressional campaign during this period). And voters most places are fed up with the permanent campaign anyway.

So while an early start goes a long way toward building a good win, a late start — especially with such a grumpy, mercurial electorate — doesn’t necessarily translate into a loss.

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