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Primaries to Watch IV, Part Four

Published: Thursday, July 15, 2010 7:00 am By: Marc Korman and Adam Pagnucco Source: Maryland Politics Watch
3. District 17 State Senate
Previous Rank: #1

Marc
The rumor is that Jennie Forehand has begun to work, but what took her so long? Why let Cheryl Kagan get such a head start when the challenger has been open about her campaign for over a year? If Forehand loses, I think the post-mortem on her campaign will focus on the past year and Forehand’s failure to understand she was facing a serious threat. A similar scenario has unfolded in District 39. On the other hand, if Forehand pulls out a victory it will demonstrate the power of incumbency and slates.

Adam
Cheryl Kagan has the complete package for a candidate: smarts, savvy, charm, speaking ability, experience in campaigning and office-holding, work ethic and a methodical approach to the business of politicking. She is the kind of challenger that would pose problems for any incumbent and is running perhaps the best campaign in the county. But she has a conundrum to resolve: how to give voters a reason to get rid of Forehand. The incumbent is a pleasant, gracious and long-serving politician who has built up a base among regular, older voters who tend to dominate primaries with low turnout. Kagan has not tried to build a contrast with Forehand. It’s tricky given that the two have similar policy positions and no one wants to come across as beating up the nice grandmotherly lady next door.

If Forehand lets Kagan continue to hustle rings around her, she will lose. But if she picks it up, she could still survive.